Apple may potentially ship a record-breaking 250 million iPhones in 2021.
In a note to investors seen by sources, lead analyst Daniel Ives says Apple has not had a “launch uptrend such as this in several years.” Ives notes that that the only similar iPhone trajectory would be the iPhone 6 in 2014.
Additionally, Ives says that the bank has learned that 2021 iPhone models could have double the storage capacity. He also believes that there’s a “high likelihood” that all models released in 2021 could have LiDAR.
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“The last few days, our TMT team conducted our Asia supply chain checks. Also, iPhones which were incrementally bullish around iPhone 12 5G demand and have now exceeded even our ‘bull case scenario’ for units in FY21 given the current trajectory,” Ives writes.
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Above all, Based on the most recent checks, Ives says the supply chain is now expecting December quarter iPhone unit assemblies of up to 95 million. Also, That’s roughly a 35% increase from the initial Wedbush and Wall Street forecasts.
Moreover, If that trajectory holds out in a bull case through the holiday quarter. Ives predicts that Apple could ship “north of 240 million” units in 2021. The analyst adds that Apple could ship a peak of about 250 million units in total. According to Ives, this is a “jaw-dropping figure” that would easily eclipse the previous record of 231 million units sold in 2015.
The Bottom Line
Ives estimates that 350 million iPhone users worldwide are currently “in the window of an upgrade opportunity,” which he believes is “translating into an unprecedented supercycle upgrade cycle” for Apple this year.
If this forecast proves to be accurate, the iPhone 12 lineup could prove to be the most popular since the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which saw strong demand following their September 2014 launch due to their larger screen sizes. Samsung already offered multiple smartphones with screen sizes at or beyond the 5-inch mark at the time.